Let's look at the numbers
There are currently around 960,000 people on Oahu.
A standard digital PCR analyzer (the machine used to test the swabs) can process 500 tests per day.
Who can run the tests?
There are three entities that can do testing on Oahu.
How can we collect the samples?
To collect samples to be analyzed there needs to be collection points.
Collection sites
The majority of people could come to a collection site that is set up near where they live. These could even be someone’s polling station that is used for voting. The stations can be set up to have people in that polling district come to the collection location. The collection sequencing can be set up by first letter of the last name with A-B on day 1, C-D on day 2...
Mobile collection sites
For those people who cannot come to a collection site, they can call into the polling center to have a specially trained team to come out and collect the sample. These would include nursing homes and people who are stuck in their homes.
What about the test kits and our current labs?
These collection points will collect tests in test kits. The test kits need to be compatible with the analyzers that one of the three labs have.
Each of the labs have different equipment so there is not uniformity and the collection sites would need to have the test kits labeled so they know where to send the kits to be analyzed.
The test kits have a reagent and a swab with the kit. Both the reagent and the swabs are in short supply because the manufacturers did not realize there would be so many tests needing to be done.
How do we handle the extra load above what we normally do?
The three labs will not be able to handle the increased load. The state could purchase additional analyzers and keep as part of their strategic readiness capacity. The purchase of 50 machines would mean that 25,000 tests could be analyzed per day. All 960,000 resident’s tests would be analyzed in 39 days and not overload any of the existing labs.
What are the costs?
Analyzers
Machines cost $30,000 to $50,000 retail, and if buying 50 machines I can get them for around $30,000 each especially if we are also buying 960,000 test kits, as the guys who make the kits, also make the machines.
Test Kits
The test kits normally sell for $35 each, but as I said earlier, with 960,000 kits I could get them for around $20 each.
That is an expense of $1.5M for machines and $19.2M for the tests.
Lab Technicians
A team of 100 technicians could run all of the tests over the 39 days. A lab technician on contract costs around $400/day. That would mean $1.44M in labor costs.
Collection sites
The collection sites would be estimated to be 100 sites around Oahu (~250 people per day per site) with 10 specialized collection teams (assume 50 people per day per specialized team). The collection sites would be manned by 4 staff each and the specialized teams would have 6 people each. Again assuming the $400/day cost we could assume $12.384M over the 36 days.
In-Kind Contribution from the C&C, State, and National Guard
The lab sites could be donated by the city, state, or National Guard as part of existing facilities budgets. Vehicles for the specialized collection teams would be donated by city, county, state, and national guard from existing vehicles.
With the government using in-kind contributions,
this is a total cost of $34.624M over 36 days to test everyone on Oahu.
Extra Costs if no in-kind contribution
If the government does not want to use in-kind contributions, and we would be required to expend additional resources for the lab sites, collection sites, and vehicles and we need to do everything within 36 days, we are looking at an estimated 100 sites, 10 remote collection teams, and 10 lab sites with 5 machines each. This would mean renting 100 tents set up for the collection sites, 10 vans, and 10 open locations.
Extra costs can be assumed to increase costs by $1,056,400 to $1,076,400
With no in-kind support, we could do this for less than $37 million
So - what is stopping us?!
There are currently around 960,000 people on Oahu.
A standard digital PCR analyzer (the machine used to test the swabs) can process 500 tests per day.
Who can run the tests?
There are three entities that can do testing on Oahu.
How can we collect the samples?
To collect samples to be analyzed there needs to be collection points.
Collection sites
The majority of people could come to a collection site that is set up near where they live. These could even be someone’s polling station that is used for voting. The stations can be set up to have people in that polling district come to the collection location. The collection sequencing can be set up by first letter of the last name with A-B on day 1, C-D on day 2...
Mobile collection sites
For those people who cannot come to a collection site, they can call into the polling center to have a specially trained team to come out and collect the sample. These would include nursing homes and people who are stuck in their homes.
What about the test kits and our current labs?
Each of the labs have different equipment so there is not uniformity and the collection sites would need to have the test kits labeled so they know where to send the kits to be analyzed.
The test kits have a reagent and a swab with the kit. Both the reagent and the swabs are in short supply because the manufacturers did not realize there would be so many tests needing to be done.
How do we handle the extra load above what we normally do?
The three labs will not be able to handle the increased load. The state could purchase additional analyzers and keep as part of their strategic readiness capacity. The purchase of 50 machines would mean that 25,000 tests could be analyzed per day. All 960,000 resident’s tests would be analyzed in 39 days and not overload any of the existing labs.
What are the costs?
Analyzers
Machines cost $30,000 to $50,000 retail, and if buying 50 machines I can get them for around $30,000 each especially if we are also buying 960,000 test kits, as the guys who make the kits, also make the machines.
Test Kits
The test kits normally sell for $35 each, but as I said earlier, with 960,000 kits I could get them for around $20 each.
That is an expense of $1.5M for machines and $19.2M for the tests.
Lab Technicians
A team of 100 technicians could run all of the tests over the 39 days. A lab technician on contract costs around $400/day. That would mean $1.44M in labor costs.
Collection sites
The collection sites would be estimated to be 100 sites around Oahu (~250 people per day per site) with 10 specialized collection teams (assume 50 people per day per specialized team). The collection sites would be manned by 4 staff each and the specialized teams would have 6 people each. Again assuming the $400/day cost we could assume $12.384M over the 36 days.
In-Kind Contribution from the C&C, State, and National Guard
The lab sites could be donated by the city, state, or National Guard as part of existing facilities budgets. Vehicles for the specialized collection teams would be donated by city, county, state, and national guard from existing vehicles.
With the government using in-kind contributions,
this is a total cost of $34.624M over 36 days to test everyone on Oahu.
Extra Costs if no in-kind contribution
If the government does not want to use in-kind contributions, and we would be required to expend additional resources for the lab sites, collection sites, and vehicles and we need to do everything within 36 days, we are looking at an estimated 100 sites, 10 remote collection teams, and 10 lab sites with 5 machines each. This would mean renting 100 tents set up for the collection sites, 10 vans, and 10 open locations.
- 100 tents for 36 days = $275/tent/day or $990,000
- 10 vans for 36 days = $115/day/van or $41,400
- 10 2,000 sqf lab sites for 36 days = estimate $1.25-$2.25/sqf or $25,000 to $45,000
Extra costs can be assumed to increase costs by $1,056,400 to $1,076,400
With no in-kind support, we could do this for less than $37 million
So - what is stopping us?!
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